The White House’s narrative swings on tariffs continue to play the leading role in market sentiment, but today will also bring important data relevant to the Federal Reserve's positioning. Donald Trump stated yesterday that “Jerome Powell is making a mistake by not cutting interest rates,” yet inflation uncertainty and a stable labor market still support the current direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Given the ongoing Trump-Powell tension, particular attention will be paid to the steady jobless claims data and further comments from Fed members. We’ll also get housing market data. In Europe, the key focus will be Germany’s Ifo index and a speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane.
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Economic calendar for today:
08:00 GMT, Germany – Current Assessment of the German Economy for April:
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Forecast: 85.5; Previous: 85.7
08:00 GMT, Germany – Ifo Business Climate Index for April:
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Forecast: 85.1; Previous: 86.7
08:00 GMT, Germany – Business Expectations for April:
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Forecast: 85.0; Previous: 87.7
08:00 GMT, Poland – Labor Market Data for March:
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Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 5.3%; Previous: 5.4%
12:00 GMT, Germany – Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel
12:30 GMT, USA – Durable Goods Orders for March:
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Orders: Forecast: 2.1% m/m; Previous: 0.9% m/m
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Core Orders: Forecast: 0.3% m/m; Previous: 0.7% m/m
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Non-defense Capital Goods Orders (ex-aircraft): Forecast: 0.2% m/m; Previous: 0.8% m/m
12:30 GMT, USA – Capital Goods Orders ex-Defense for March:
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Forecast: 0.2% m/m; Previous: -0.3% m/m
12:30 GMT, USA – CFNAI Index for March:
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Previous: 0.18
12:30 GMT, USA – Jobless Claims:
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Initial Claims: Forecast: 222K; Previous: 215K
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Continuing Claims: Forecast: 1.880M; Previous: 1.885M
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4-week Average: Previous: 220.75K
13:00 GMT, Eurozone – ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane's Speech
14:00 GMT, USA – Existing Home Sales for March:
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Units: Forecast: 4.14M; Previous: 4.26M
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Change: Forecast: -3.0% m/m; Previous: 4.2% m/m
17:00 GMT, USA – 7-Year Treasury Auction:
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Previous Yield: 4.233%
17:00 GMT, USA – GDP Data:
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): Forecast: -2.2%; Previous: -2.2%
20:30 GMT, USA – Federal Reserve Balance Sheet:
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Previous: $6.727B
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Reserve Balances at Federal Reserve Banks: Previous: $3.280T
21:00 GMT, USA – Speech by FOMC Member Kashkari
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