- The US500 is up just under 2%, while the US100 is up 3%, just over 2 hours before the close of business on Wall Street. The DE40 is up just over 2% today, hitting its highest level since April 3.
- The United States is trying to de-escalate its trade war by suggesting that tariffs with China should be reduced. The Wall Street Journal reported that goods critical to US security should be subject to tariffs of 100%, while those that do not pose a threat to US security could be subject to tariffs of 35%.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not comment on specific rates, but stressed that it would not be a unilateral reduction and would have to be the result of negotiations with China.
- The news has dampened earlier euphoria on Wall Street. At one point, the US100 was up by 4%, while the US500 was gaining over 3%.
- Donald Trump has reduced concerns about the US dollar and stock market, indicating in recent statements that he does not want to fire Jerome Powell as the head of the Fed. The earlier narrative caused panic due to the undermining of the independence of the US central bank.
- The dollar is gaining in the face of reduced risk. EURUSD is falling below 1.1350, while previously the level of 1.1500 was tested.
- Yesterday, gold tested 3500, while today the price of gold is falling and is testing around USD 3300 per ounce.
- Some OPEC+ members would like to continue the stronger production growth in June. OPEC+ is raising production in April by 138 thousand barrels per day, while in May it is to increase production by 411 thousand barrels per day.
- Oil reserves in the US are rising by 0.24 million barrels, with a decrease expected. On the other hand, gasoline and distillate reserves are falling significantly.
- However, oil is losing during the day, having previously reached almost 3-week highs. WTI oil tested USD 65 per barrel today, while currently testing around USD 62 per barrel. Oil is currently losing around 2.2%.
- Retail sales in Poland for March increased by 0.6% y/y with expectations of 1.5% y/y. After yesterday's wage data and today's retail sales, expectations of interest rate cuts in May are growing. Currently, the market is pricing in a high chance of even a 75 bp cut in May, although MPC members previously suggested a possible 50 bp.
- The PMI index for industry in Germany came in at 48 points with expectations of a drop to 47.6 points from the previous level of 48.3 points. The PMI index for services is falling to 48.8 points with expectations of 50.2 and with the previous level of 50.9 points.
- A similar trend was visible in the case of France and the entire eurozone. According to Christine Lagarde, the decline in PMI is the result of uncertainty about tariffs. In her opinion, tariffs will be more disinflationary than inflationary.
- The US manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rises to 50.7 points, with expectations of a decline to 49 points and the previous level of 50.2 points. However, the services index falls significantly to 51.4, with expectations of 52.6 and the previous level of 54.4.
- Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced that the UK will not relax food quality standards to secure a trade agreement with the US in the context of tariffs.
- Cryptocurrencies are gaining, although the scale of the gains from the first part of the day has been limited so far. Bitcoin is trading near USD 93,500, while Ethereum is up 2.2% and rising above USD 1,790.
- Tesla: Revenue fell 9% YoY to $19.3 billion, net profit fell more than 70%, and deliveries were well below expectations (336,681 units). Tesla gained almost 8% today, however, as sales were better than worst-case predictions. Musk also announces greater focus on business than politics.
- Boeing: Revenue rose 18% YoY to $19.5 billion, net loss narrowed to $31 million, and commercial aircraft segment improved on higher deliveries, although the company continues to generate negative cash flow. The company recorded its first revenue increase since 2023.
- Philip Morris: Results exceeded expectations - EPS $1.69 (+5.6% vs. consensus), revenue $9.3 billion; strong growth in smokeless products and positive market response.
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