With no directly catalyst or data released, futures on COFFEE are losing today almost 5% today. We can find the reason of it in change in Vietnam weather, where heavy rains are seen today according to NOAA data. Drought market conditions supported a strong rebound on coffee futures market last weeks, but now weather may change. Also, weather forecasts suggest that coming days may bring more rain, improving the supply and demand ratio for coffee as bean harvest conditions improve.
COFFEE (M30 interval)
Heavy rains in Vietnam were seen since 2 to 6 AM UTC, and selling pressure on coffee is rising just after the beginning of today trading session. The level of $220 may be a key short-term support zone. Weather change from drought to rainy period may be a signal of liquidating net long positions on the coffee markets, but traders will also observe still dry conditions in Brazil.
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Source: xStation5
NOAA still expects higher, above-normal cyclone activity during all of 2024, so coffee futures may be very volatile during this season, especially hitting supply conditions in Brasil. Vietnam and Brasil are key, global coffee exporters.
Source: NOAA
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